Why Carlos Alcaraz’s injury is the French Open’s worst nightmare

Roland Garros will be a quieter place this year. There could still be comebacks and great matches, but it’s hard to imagine any recreating the roar from the Parisian crowd as Carlos Alcaraz raced around the red clay whipping them into a frenzy as he saved three Championship points in his incredible five-set final victory over Jannik Sinner. This season Alcaraz made further history by becoming the youngest man to complete the career grand slam, but where the Spaniard really excels is his ability to excite. Through his shotmaking or infectious spirit, his greatest quality is that it can be hard to take your eyes from him.

But now there is no other option. The defending champion last week confirmed that he would be missing this year’s French Open due to a wrist injury. It will be the first grand slam tournament Alcaraz has been absent for since the 2023 Australian Open, when he was 19, and will likely confirm what has become increasingly apparent since then: that men’s tennis has been overly reliant on Alcaraz and Sinner’s rivalry. “Tennis needs Carlos,” Sinner said, confirming as much, as he reacted to Alcaraz’s withdrawal from Roland Garros and Rome. “Tennis is a much better sport when he’s around.”

Alcaraz has helped take a sport to heights few foresaw so soon after the rivalries between Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer drew to a close. But for the past year, men’s tennis has been dealing with a trade-off. It has, on one hand, a compelling rivalry between two generational players, emerging immediately from the era of the “Big Three”. Ever since their mind-bending Roland Garros final, in one of the greatest matches of all time, fans have yearned for a repeat, and there were sequels at Wimbledon, the US Open and the year-end ATP Finals.

In their dominance, Alcaraz and Sinner have racked up titles and accumulated ranking points to the extent that the world No 3, Alexander Zverev, is closer to the world No 1001 than the No 1. While Alcaraz and Sinner have won nine grand slam titles in a row between them, there has often been an absence of drama in the earlier rounds of major tournaments; too little drama involving them, anyway. And until the 38-year-old Djokovic produced one of his greatest ever performances to beat Sinner in the semi-finals of the Australian Open in January, the idea of Alcaraz and Sinner meeting in another final has at times felt too predictable.

But the sport has undoubtedly been grateful to have them. Perhaps this year’s Roland Garros, without Alcaraz, could reveal what predictable really means. “They’ve been playing some incredible matches,” said Djokovic, who very much still views himself as a rival, last season. “Hopefully they can keep going, because that’s what our sport needs.” Federer hailed their dominance but offered a warning, too. “I think that French Open final was unreal. I think the game, not that it needed it, but it was great that we had it. There’s obviously more to come. I just hope they stay injury-free, obviously.”

Last season, Sinner and Alcaraz would regularly turn to each other during trophy presentations and offer their thanks for providing the motivation to improve. There was a noticeable dip in Alcaraz’s levels during the three months last season where Sinner served his anti-doping suspension, followed by a sharp improvement when the Italian returned at the Italian Open. Even though Sinner will not need to face his greatest rival if he is to join Alcaraz by completing the career grand slam at the French Open in June, he expressed his disappointment and described the Spaniard’s absence as “painful and very sad”.

It may be good news for Djokovic, who will turn 39 before his latest bid for a 25th grand slam title. For the past two years he has been faced with the challenge of defeating Alcaraz, Sinner, or both at the same tournament. Even when Djokovic received a fortunate route to the Australian Open semi-finals and took advantage of that by beating Sinner, he still had to face Alcaraz in the final and ultimately ran out of steam after a bright start. Djokovic will know he has an excellent chance, potentially the window of opportunity he has been waiting for these past two years.

It also brings into sharp focus the question that was hanging over the sport at the start of the year, and whether a third man can become a contender for grand slam titles. So far, we’re yet to see conclusive evidence. Alcaraz won the Australian Open, and Sinner won the first three Masters titles of the year. There have been good moments this season for Arthur Fils, Jakub Mensik, Ben Shelton, Flavio Cobolli and Jiri Lehecka, as well as a Daniil Medvedev resurgence. But, the Frenchman Fils aside, it feels a stretch to say any of them could challenge Sinner at Roland Garros. Jack Draper, meanwhile, has suffered more injury setbacks, this time with a knee problem that threatens his participation in Paris.

Alcaraz, though, deserves credit for making his long-term health a priority. Wrist injuries are serious, and have derailed the career of many a top player, with Dominic Thiem and Juan Martin del Potro recent examples. “Injuries are always tough, especially a wrist,” Sinner said. “There’s certain areas of our body that are very sensitive. The wrist, we saw with other players in the past that they can complicate our life. If you come back too early then maybe you have a bigger problem afterwards.”

Alcaraz has made the right decision, but it’s down to others to determine if a grand slam tournament without the Spaniard is as much of a nightmare for tennis as it appears.