How Elena Rybakina can overtake Sabalenka as world No.1

Elena Rybakina has won her second title of 2026, adding the Stuttgart Open to her collection after already claiming a major trophy in Melbourne earlier this year.

The world number two took down Karolina Muchova 7-5, 6-1 in the final. Building off her strong start to the season, she now looks like a genuine contender for the top ranking.

Rybakina’s consistency has put Aryna Sabalenka on notice and with plenty of WTA events coming up, she’ll be looking to pile on more points before the tour moves to grass.

Elena Rybakina’s path to the world number one ranking

Rybakina’s title defence could also see her add another 1000 points to her tally, depending on how the draw plays out.

Sabalenka will be under pressure early on in Madrid, as she’s defending a large haul of points from her win there last year. Any slip-up could open the door for Rybakina to close the gap significantly.

The WTA rankings are set for some movement after this tournament, and Rybakina has a real chance to put herself right in the mix for the top spot.

Further gains are possible with a strong performance at Rome as well. She only reached the round of 32 last year, so there’s plenty of room to add more points.

Meanwhile, Sabalenka is defending 215 points in Rome after reaching last year’s quarter-finals.

If Sabalenka were to lose before the semi-finals and Rybakina were to win it all, that would give Rybakina enough points to move ahead and take over at number one. It sets up an intriguing stretch of tennis with plenty riding on each result.

How Aryna Sabalenka became world number one

Jelena Ostapenko played a key role in Aryna Sabalenka’s rise to world number one during the 2023 US Open.

The former French Open champion took down Iga Swiatek in the first round, which opened the door for Sabalenka to move into the top spot for the first time in her career.

After beating Daria Kasatkina in her fourth-round match, Sabalenka spoke about when she had first learned of the milestone.

“I find out this morning,” she said. “I just opened my phone and I was just like, ‘guys, I have match today, I have things to take care of. Thank you so much for all the support, for all the messages.’

“I didn’t ask for any of the messages because I was trying to stay focused on the game, don’t let this news distract me. I answered everybody only now.

Sabalenka went on to reach that year’s final but finished runner-up after a three-set defeat to Coco Gauff.

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