What Does Novak Djokovic Need to Qualify for the ATP Finals?

In his surprise return to the ATP 500 event in Basel this year, Novak Djokovic could not quite produce the run he would have hoped for, as he fell to Jan-Lennard Struff in his second match of the tournament.

Although it was a tightly contested encounter, with all three sets reaching the 5-5 mark, Djokovic eventually lost after making some uncharacteristic errors in the final-set tiebreak, handing Struff his first-ever victory against him in their ninth meeting.

Novak Djokovic’s Basel Defeat Complicates His Turin Qualification Hopes

At this stage of his career, Djokovic is far removed from needing results at ATP 500 tournaments. However, he has consistently stated that, regardless of his age, he always plays to win. More importantly, this defeat has dented his hopes of achieving something he was particularly keen on when returning to Basel: securing his place at the ATP Finals in Turin in just over two weeks.

Djokovic entered Basel ranked 12th in the Race to Turin, an event for which only the top eight players qualify. This is a significant change from previous years, when the Serbian would typically have secured his qualification by this stage of the season, even if he subsequently chose not to participate, as he did in each of the past two years. The Serbian needed a deep run in Basel to strengthen his position and avoid having to rely entirely on the Paris Masters to secure qualification.

However, following this defeat, Djokovic will now have to do precisely that. Given the current landscape of the live rankings, he will need a deep run in Paris to put himself in a strong position to qualify. At the time of writing, Djokovic sits 11th in the Race to Turin, with Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton already having secured their places.

Jannik Sinner has also qualified, but with the Italian set to miss the event due to a season-ending knee injury, another opportunity has opened up for players fighting to secure a place in Turin, including Djokovic himself. A total of five main-draw spots now remain, with as many as ten players still in contention.

Who Are Djokovic’s Main Rivals for the Remaining Spots?

Given their current leads in the race to Turin and the fact that they are still competing at the ATP 500 events taking place this week, it is more than likely that Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Fils will claim two of those five remaining spots. This would leave three places available for a group of eight players.

At the other end of the spectrum, Jakub Mensik would likely need a title run in Paris to qualify. Although not impossible, this remains a long shot. Then there is the curious case of Flavio Cobolli, a player who, in theory, should qualify and compete in front of his home fans in Turin. Unfortunately, the Italian recently suffered an injury during his match against Matteo Berrettini, leaving him visibly emotional and in tears on court. This raises questions about whether he will be able to compete for the remainder of the season.

Absolutely heartbreaking scenes in Vienna 💔

Flavio Cobolli leaves the court in tears as he is forced to retire against great friend Berrettini 😢 https://t.co/NRyAVYkToQ

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 29, 2026

Even if we count Cobolli, the three remaining spots would be contested by Cobolli, Frances Tiafoe, Rafael Jodar, Alex de Minaur, Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul. Only three of them are still competing at the ATP 500 tournaments this week, with Fritz remaining in contention in Basel, while de Minaur and Paul are playing in Vienna. Interestingly, Fritz faces Fils in a crucial encounter that could have significant implications for the Turin qualification race.

Apart from Tafoe and the injured Cobolli, the other five players are currently separated by fewer than 500 points, with Novak Djokovic firmly in the middle of that group, behind Jodar and de Minaur but ahead of the American duo. While the results of the three players still competing this week will be important, the positive news for Djokovic is that his qualification for Turin remains very much in his own hands.

The Last Word

If the Serbian suffers another early defeat in Paris, even with Sinner out of the equation and Cobolli’s participation in doubt, Djokovic will fail to qualify for the ATP Finals for the first time since 2017.

Novak Djokovic will likely need at least a semifinal appearance, alongside early exits for some of the players around him in the rankings, to put himself in a position to qualify. Even then, his place in Turin would not necessarily be guaranteed.

If the seven-time champion reaches the final in Paris, it is quite likely that he will be present in Turin, where he would be looking to claim a record-extending eighth title. Going one step further and winning the tournament would not only give him a 103rd career title but also secure his qualification without any further complications.

Novak Djokovic showed at the start of October in Beijing that he can still produce a week of tennis in which he is the best player in the field. To accomplish his goal of returning to Turin, he might very well have to produce another performance of that standard.

Main Image Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images