Shocking trend says Jannik Sinner could lose French Open like Rafael Nadal

Shocking trend says Jannik Sinner could lose French Open like Rafael Nadal originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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Jannik Sinner is an unstoppable, runaway locomotive.

The Italian boast a 29-game winning streak. He’s now the second man to win all 9 Masters 1000 tournaments, joining Novak Djokovic. And his best competition, Carlos Alcaraz, is nursing a wrist injury that will sideline him indefinitely. 

What could go wrong? 

The French Open begins on May 24 and Sinner is an overwhelming favorite. Sportsbooks have him priced around -300 to win the tournament. 

But that very fact could be the reason why Sinner may fall at Roland-Garros. 

Why history says Sinner could lose the French Open

Overwhelming favorites at Roland-Garros are very rare. Two-time defending champ Alcaraz was priced around +150 to win the tournament while healthy. But without the Spaniard healthy, Sinner’s competition is diluted. 

Sinner is actually the heaviest French Open favorite (-300) since Rafael Nadal in 2009 (-400). 

Nadal, who has won 14 French Open titles, actually lost as a 4/1 pre-tournament favorite in 2009. He fell to Robin Söderling (6-2, 6-7, 4-6, 6-7) in a shocking upset. It ended his 31-match winning streak at the tournament. 

The King of Clay falling before even reaching the title game was astounding. Especially in a year he was the largest favorite in history. 

MORE: Jannik Sinner has surprising reaction to overtaking Carlos Alcaraz as World No. 1 after Monte Carlo win

Could Sinner see the same fate? 

We’ve seen questions about the Italian’s conditioning, clay is his weakest surface, and he’s never won at Roland-Garros. 

Tennis fans will recall the epic choke job in 2025 when Sinner had three championship points and still lost to Alcaraz. He’s shown weakness on clay. However, this season he’s been much stronger taking wins at Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome. 

Does the history of massive favorites at French Open hold up in 2026? Or is Sinner the obvious choice to complete his career Grand Slam here and now? 

Questions that will soon be answered in the weeks to come.

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