Madison Keys picks if Carlos Alcaraz or Alexander Zverev has been given a tougher group at the ATP Finals

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Carlos Alcaraz holds the 2026 Paris Masters trophy

Photo by Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP via Getty Images

The 2026 ATP Finals are just around the corner, and there are two clear favourites to win the prestigious year-end event.

Alexander Zverev is the top seed in Turin this season, following his stellar 2026 campaign. The German captured his first two major titles at Roland Garros and the US Open before clinching world number one status for the first time in his career, becoming the first from his country to do so since Boris Becker in 1991.

His biggest competition at the ATP Finals is Carlos Alcaraz, who is currently on a nine-match winning streak with consecutive triumphs in Vienna and Paris.

Carlos Alcaraz holds the 2026 Paris Masters trophy

Photo by Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP via Getty Images

Madison Keys compares the two ATP Finals groups

The ATP Finals features a round-robin stage with two groups, the John McEnroe group and the Ivan Lendl group, followed by two semifinals and the championship match. The John McEnroe group consists of Zverev, Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar.

Meanwhile, the Ivan Lendl group features Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Frances Tiafoe and home hope Flavio Cobolli. Tiafoe, Fils, Jodar and Cobolli are all making their ATP Finals debut at this year’s edition.

Zverev holds a winning record against everybody in his group, including Shelton, whom he leads 6-0 on the ATP Tour. He has managed to avoid the two players he has a losing record against: Medvedev and Alcaraz. Despite that, WTA star Madison Keys thinks Zverev has been handed a tougher group than Alcaraz.

Speaking on Sky Sports, Keys said: “You have Ben, who was just in the finals of Paris and the finals of the US Open. I mean, I feel like when you have Zverev, who is the number one in the world. Then you also have Jodar, who was ranked 60-something at the beginning of the year and is already in the finals.

“Fils is having an incredible year, won Cincinnati in amazing fashion. So, I feel like the difference between all of those players is so much closer versus I feel like when you have Carlos in the other group who is just a little bit more dominant.

“I feel like for the two spot, I feel like it’s close, but I feel like the one and two spot in the other group is going to be more up for grabs.”

Former Wimbledon champion Marion Bartoli added: “When he [Alcaraz] plays the way he played in Paris indoors, I think he’s pretty much unbeatable. That being said, I think Sascha Zverev will try to finish on a good note. He’s the number one player in the world. He won that event in the past. So he knows how to play really well indoors too.

“When that service is firing, he’s hard to beat. But the way Carlos played throughout Paris just gave me the brightest smile on my face. I was like, ‘Yes, he’s back playing best.’ I loved it.” Alcaraz dropped just one set en route to winning the Paris Masters for the first time in his career last week.

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