Can Aryna Sabalenka Win Her First Roland Garros Title?

Aryna Sabalenka is chasing her first French Open title, and, since she made her debut in 2017, she failed to make it past the third round until 2023, when she reached the semifinals but was defeated by Karolína Muchová 7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5. The closest Sabalenka came to winning the title was in last year’s final, when she lost to Coco Gauff 6–7(5) 6–2 6–4 after going a set up.

The French Open has proven to be the most difficult hunting ground for the four-time Grand Slam winner. Her progress on the clay surface and history have shown she has turned a challenging surface into a legitimate platform for contenders. But does she have what it takes to lift the title on Saturday?

Can Aryna Sabalenka Win Her First Roland Garros Title?

Sabalenka vs The Field

The World No. 1 will face Diana Shnaider for a place in the semifinals. The Russian has been dominant and has only dropped one set in Paris so far, against Madison Keys in her previous match. Since Sabelenka’s shock defeat to Sorana Cirstea in Rome, she has yet to drop a set. This is their first-ever meeting, and the World No. 1 is on a dominant run, having won 14 straight Grand Slam quarterfinals. On the other hand, Schneider will be playing her first major quarterfinal at the 2026 French Open. I expect Sabalenka to win this, given her QF dominance and experience.

If Sabalenka gets the better of Shnaider, her potential opponent will be Anna Kalinskaya or Maja Chwalinska in the semifinals. The quarterfinal meeting against Chwalinska will be Kalinskaya’s best result at the French Open as she boosts off a 36.4% win percentage all-time with 4 wins and 7 losses. The 24-year-old Polish Chwalinska is enjoying her debut in Paris as she became the first qualifier to reach the quarterfinals since 2020. She is also the fourth Polish woman in the Open Era to make a Grand Slam quarterfinal, joining Iga Świątek, Agnieszka Radwańska, and Magda Linette.

On the other half of the draw, Mirra Andreeva and Marta Kostyuk already punched their tickets into the French Open semifinals.

The Huge Favorite

Excluding Sabalenka, no player left in the field has made it to the final of the Roland Garros.

Among all the quarterfinalists, only Sabalenka and Andreeva have made it to the semifinals before. Elina Svitolina is competing in her 15th Grand Slam QF (6th in Paris), while Diana Shnaider, Anna Kalinskaya, and qualifier Maja Chwalińska are making their debut at this stage. The World No. 1 has won four Grand Slam titles, compared to the seven other players who have never won a major title.

Due to the elimination of the defending champion Coco Gauff, who defeated Sabalenka in the final last year, and Iga Świątek, who has won the title four times, there will be a new winner in Paris. This has surely paved the way for the Belarusian to win her first Roland Garros title.

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – Imagn Images