Carlos Alcaraz faces tough early tests at Indian Wells, experts say

Carlos Alcaraz, already a two-time winner of Indian Wells, enters the 2026 tournament as the clear favourite.

The world number one from Spain has yet to lose a match this year and has always performed well in California.

With Jannik Sinner struggling for form, Alcaraz appears nearly unstoppable right now.

Still, he can’t afford to get too comfortable – there are plenty of dangerous players in his section who could cause problems along the way…

Alcaraz faces warning over Dimitrov and Rinderknech matchups

On the latest episode of The Big T Podcast, Mark Petchey, who is currently working with Emma Raducanu, discussed Alcaraz’s possible second-round matchup.

“Everyone’s eyes are going to drift towards [Carlos] Alcaraz, but he potentially has a very tricky match in the second round if he gets up against Grigor Dimitrov,” Petchey said.

“[Terence] Atmane is the person who Grigor [Dimitrov] is going to take on first, so that’s not an easy one out of the blocks.”

Dimitrov has won two of his last three meetings with Alcaraz but has managed just one victory so far this season as he works his way back from injury.

Petchey’s co-host CoCo Vandeweghe then spoke about Arthur Rinderknech, who could be Alcaraz’s opponent in the third round.

“I don’t think it’s easy, and it doesn’t get easier from there,” she said. “[Arthur] Rinderknech is potentially going to be the first seed he faces. And big serving here, if you can serve big and get some momentum, it’s one place that can really accentuate that. Rinderknech is one of those players that when he starts serving big, it takes the racket out of your hand.”

If Alcaraz navigates past both Dimitrov and Rinderknech, a potential last-16 clash with Casper Ruud awaits. From there, his path to the title could require victories over three top-10 players: Alex de Minaur, Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner.

Carlos Alcaraz’s longest unbeaten run

If Alcaraz wins Indian Wells, his current streak will hit 18 matches. That still falls short of his best stretch.

In 2025, he put together a run of 24 straight victories, picking up titles at the Italian Open, Roland-Garros and Queen’s Club before falling just short in the Wimbledon final.

To top that streak in 2026, he’d need to win not just Indian Wells and Miami, but also his first match at whatever event follows. It’s a tall order but far from out of reach given his current form.

Still, as Petchey and Vandeweghe noted, there are early hurdles to clear in California before any talk of records gets serious. He’ll open against either Dimitrov or Atmane on March 7th.

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