Two Spots Left for Turin: Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul Fight to Keep ATP Finals Dreams Alive

Only two spots remain at the ATP Finals for four players heading into Friday. Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul both came away with straight-set wins to keep their push to Turin alive, so what do the clinching scenarios look like now?

Three Americans and a Spaniard are chasing the last two places at the Nitto ATP Finals, which run Nov. 15-22 in Italy, and the Rolex Paris Masters will settle much of it. Six players have already booked their trips: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli and Arthur Fils. Jannik Sinner is out injured, so the ninth spot in the Live Race is effectively the last ticket.

Two Spots Left for 2026 ATP Finals

The Scenarios

Fritz: The 11th-placed American is in if he reaches the semifinals, unless Paul reaches the final. If the two Americans meet in the final, Fritz qualifies regardless of the result.

Paul: The 13th-placed American has the hardest road. He has to reach the final, and he can’t lose to Fritz when he gets there.

Tiafoe: Currently eighth, Frances Tiafoe is through in every scenario except one: Paul beating Fritz in the final.

Jodar: The 20-year-old Spaniard sits ninth and needs a lot to go his way. Fritz must lose before the semifinals, and Paul must lose before the final.

Fritz Keeps His Hopes Alive

Fritz moved a step closer with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Fils in the Round of 16. Fils had already clinched his ATP Finals spot a day earlier, but Fritz had no such luxury and played like it.

He dropped few points on serve, racing through a 28-minute opening set by using the full width of the court and keeping rallies short, at just 2.9 shots per point. Fils saved two break points in the opening game of the second set and answered with a fist pump toward the crowd. Fritz’s consistent returning blunted Fils’ rhythm, and he broke for the second time in the third game of the second set. The French crowd fell silent on the final point.

Up next for Fritz is Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, a far taller task.

Paul Survives a Tense One

Paul knew a loss to Frenchman Quentin Halys would end his ATP Finals hopes, and he held firm in a 7-6(3) 6-4 victory. He now sits 309 points behind Jodar in the Live Race, with Jodar already out of the tournament.

Paul’s next opponent is Shelton, the third seed and a close friend. Both are chasing an inaugural Paris semifinal, and it will be their first time meeting since 2024.

“He’s in great form right now,” Shelton said. “A great player, a great friend. I’ve been rooting for him to make a push and reach Turin. It will be fireworks tomorrow.”

Given what’s at stake for both Fritz and Paul against two of the field’s best, Friday could reshape the Turin picture in a hurry.

The Last Word

Paul opened as a slight favorite over Shelton, partly a nod to what is on the line for him. Paul is still chasing the ATP Finals, while Shelton has already qualified. Paul has also had the stronger indoor swing, reaching the semifinals in Lyon, the quarterfinals in Vienna, and now the quarterfinals in Paris.

He has yet to drop a set in the French capital, beating Holger Rune, Daniel Merida and Quentin Halys in the first three rounds. The head-to-head with Shelton is tied 2-2, and Paul won their only indoor meeting in Dallas in 2024.

Fritz is a firm underdog against Alcaraz, who leads their head-to-head 6-1. Alcaraz should be fresh, having played just one match in Paris, but Matteo Berrettini’s withdrawal before their Round of 16 match could leave him short of rhythm.

Whatever happens Friday, this Live Race is a strong statement for American tennis. Shelton has qualified, Tiafoe, Fritz, and Paul are still in the hunt, and Brandon Nakashima and Learner Tien both sit in the Top-21. For the first time in years, the US has a deep wave of contenders.

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports