No Carlos Alcaraz, no Novak Djokovic — Coco Gauff’s former coach reveals who could rise in Madrid

Predicting outcomes at the Madrid Open has always been a bit of a challenge.

The 2026 tournament, though, might be the hardest one yet to get a read on.

With Carlos Alcaraz pulling out due to injury and Novak Djokovic also ruling himself out, it seems like Jannik Sinner’s title to lose—if he decides to play.

But Sinner hasn’t confirmed whether he’ll be there yet, and that adds another layer of uncertainty to an already unpredictable event.

Brad Gilbert has taken a look at the field and tried to make sense of who might be in the best position to take advantage of what could end up being a wide-open draw.

Brad Gilbert backs an outsider at Madrid Open with Carlos Alcaraz absent

The former British tennis star opened by noting: “Now, you’re also forgetting about altitude. You got about 2,200 feet. And sometimes, if the weather gets warm there, that court will play unbelievably fast.

“So it actually gives a chance now to a serve bot, or gives a chance to, you know, like a Rublev. Somebody that’s a big hitter.”

Gilbert then pointed out just how important the absence of both Novak Djokovic and Sinner is.

“So, I think more than anything, we know when Alcaraz and Sinner are both in the tournament, they win the tournament. We still don’t know, obviously, if Sinner is out, my first inkling was when he did talk to Prakash at Monte Carlo, he wasn’t going. So I don’t want to sell him short.

The American then offered another prediction: “But I also feel like, you know, that court should also, you know, favour a guy like Fils, who’s a big hitter, you know, but you wonder, the guy’s playing long into Barcelona, a quick turnaround.

“But we just saw the one-week tournament. I love the one-week Masters 1000. At a two-week Masters, if you do come from a win the week before, you have a little more time to break into it, but if I were going to the betting window, I would bet on the field.

“I would take, like, you know, some guy that’s not on the board, because I can see something unexpected happening. You can see an unseeded player making a semi there, maybe even somebody out of the top 20 in the final if all three guys are out.”

Alcaraz and Djokovic on pulling out of Madrid Open

Both players made their announcements via social media, and given the circumstances, neither decision came as a surprise.

Djokovic had already hinted at ongoing physical issues before making it official, posting: “Madrid, unfortunately, I won’t be able to compete this year. I’m continuing my recovery in order to be back soon. Hasta Pronto!”

Alcaraz’s message came shortly after: “Some news is incredibly hard to share. Madrid is home, one of the most special places on the calendar to me, and that’s why it hurts so much not being able to play here for the second year in a row,” Alcaraz wrote on Friday.

“It especially hurts not to be in front of my people, in a tournament that means so much. Thanks for your love always, and I hope to see you all soon.”

How Carlos Alcaraz has fared at the Madrid Open over his career

Alcaraz won’t be playing in the Madrid Open for a second year running, but he’s put together an impressive record at the event throughout his career. It’s also one of just two Masters 1000 titles he’s claimed more than once.

He first appeared at the tournament back in 2021, making it through to the second round. A year later, after winning Indian Wells, he captured his second title at this level back home in Spain.

Along the way, he defeated both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic before defending his title against Jan-Lennard Struff in 2023. His last showing came in 2024 when he reached the quarterfinals but was knocked out by Andrey Rublev, who went on to win the tournament.

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