Coco Gauff under pressure as clay season puts points at risk

Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff are heading into the clay court season from very different positions.

Rybakina has just reached a new career high in the rankings, building on her strong start to 2026, which included a title run at the Australian Open.

The two-time Grand Slam champion will now turn her focus towards closing the gap to Aryna Sabalenka. Rybakina has made it clear that reaching world number one is one of her main goals this season.

She could take a step closer during the clay swing, while Gauff faces the possibility of sliding down the rankings if she can’t defend last year’s points.

WTA Top 10: Ranking points on the line during this year’s clay season

Gauff was last year’s standout performer on clay, reaching the finals in Madrid and Rome before lifting her second Grand Slam trophy at Roland Garros.

This means Gauff is set to defend a massive 3,408 points during this year’s clay stretch, which makes up almost half of her ranking total.

Early projections have Gauff dropping to world number six after the clay season unless she can match last year’s results.

Rybakina faces a different scenario. She has only 870 points to defend from last season, putting less pressure on her across the next few months.

The current gap between Sabalenka and Rybakina stands at 2,917 points. But that could shrink to under 1,000 depending on how they each perform over the coming months.

Amanda Anisimova and Victoria Mboko are also in position to make a move this year with only small point totals – 455 and 235 – needing defence on clay.

Svitolina and Paolini are in situations similar to Gauff though. Both players will have over 30% of their total ranking points at risk during the upcoming clay schedule.

Rybakina’s clay campaign was even more impressive in 2024

There’s a case to be made that Rybakina isn’t likely to close much of the gap on Sabalenka due to her clay court form last year, but she has shown herself as a dangerous player on the surface before.

Even though Rybakina had a poor season last year, she did pick up her fourth title on clay at Strasbourg.

One of those titles came at the WTA 1000 in Rome. But after winning just one match there last year, she’ll want better showings this time around.

Rybakina made it to the quarterfinals in Paris in both 2021 and 2024. This time, being likely seeded second should help her chances of another deep run.

The clay season is already underway, but Rybakina will hold off until Stuttgart for her first tournament. She won that title back in 2024.

The Stuttgart Open kicks off on April 13 and features seven top-10 players including Sabalenka, Gauff and Swiatek alongside Rybakina.

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